Print Page - A Mathematical Proof for the Wisdom of Crowds

Title: A Mathematical Proof for the Wisdom of Crowds
Post by: MrBogosity on June 16, 2011, 07:38:04 AM

[yt]sGBeMx90RRk[/yt]

Title: Re: A Mathematical Proof for the Wisdom of Crowds
Post by: Travis Retriever on June 16, 2011, 11:46:48 AM

Wow. That was impressive. There is still one thing though. He didn't try to explain *why* the numbers converge on the correct number of jelly beans. He merely wrote it off as an assumption. Why would the mean of the guesses converge on *that* value and not any other (provided independence of the guesses and the other conditions you list--no centralization, no false signals like a balls of styrofoam in the jar, etc)?

The Bogosity Forum

General Bogosity => General Discussion => Topic started by: MrBogosity on June 16, 2011, 07:38:04 AM