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A Mathematical Proof for the Wisdom of Crowds

Started by MrBogosity, June 16, 2011, 07:38:04 AM

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June 16, 2011, 07:38:04 AM
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June 16, 2011, 11:46:48 AM #1
Wow.  That was impressive.  There is still one thing though.  He didn't try to explain *why* the numbers converge on the correct number of jelly beans.  He merely wrote it off as an assumption.  Why would the mean of the guesses converge on *that* value and not any other (provided independence of the guesses and the other conditions you list--no centralization, no false signals like a balls of styrofoam in the jar, etc)?
"When the mob and the press and the whole world tell you to move, your job is to plant yourself like a tree beside the river of truth, and tell the whole world—'No. You move.'"
-Captain America, Amazing Spider-Man 537
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